Avalanche attempt to win season series versus Stars

Hockey Betting Lines

03/14/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche will try to win their first season series with the Dallas Stars in five campaigns as the two clubs meet for the fourth and final time in the regular season this afternoon at American Airlines Center.

Colorado took its first two meetings with the Stars this year at home before dropping a 3-2 decision in Dallas on Jan. 29. The Avalanche haven't won this season series since taking three of four in 2003-04, though the clubs have split the four-game set in each of the previous two campaigns.

The Avs, who have lost two straight and seven of their last eight in Dallas, were last in action on Thursday and posted a 3-0 victory over Florida. Craig Anderson made 27 saves versus his former club and is among the league leaders with seven shutouts. He also recorded the 14th blanking of his career while making his 22nd start in a row.

One of Anderson's seven shutouts this year came at the expense of Dallas and he is 1-1-0 with a 1.52 goals-against average in two starts versus the club this year.

Paul Stastny scored twice, Mark Hendricks had the other goal and Chris Stewart posted two assists versus the Panthers for the Avalanche, who are five points behind the Canucks for first place in the Northwest standings and rebounded from Tuesday's 6-4 loss to Vancouver in which they squandered a pair of three- goal leads.

"We've bounced back well all year," said Stastny, who has two goals and eight assists over a six-game point streak. "A couple of us had a big let down and wanted to respond, so that's what we did as a team. We played a patient game and a smart game."

Stastny isn't the only Colorado player that has played well as of late. Stewart has eight goals and 10 assists in his last 10 games, while Peter Mueller has posted a pair of tallies and five helpers in five games since being acquired from Phoenix.

While the Avalanche are still trying for a division title, the Stars have lost five of six since the Winter Olympic break to fall seven points back of the eighth spot in the West.

The Stars did earn a point last time out, falling to the Kings, 2-1, in a shootout on Friday. Marty Turco made 27 saves and stopped the first five skaters he saw in the extra session before allowing Jarret Stoll to score for Los Angeles in the sixth round.

"You know we have to gain some ground here if we want to get back in the playoffs. Unfortunately you can't do that unless you win," said Turco, who is 11-9-0 with three ties and a 2.58 GAA lifetime versus the Avalanche franchise and lost his only start against them this year. He will start for Dallas today.

Brenden Morrow notched the lone goal for the Stars, who dropped the opener of a six-game homestand for their third loss in a row at American Airlines Center.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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