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04/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only three prep races remain to determine the 20-horse field for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby. This Saturday's showcase events are the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass, with the Lexington Stakes to be run seven days later. But based on the results of all previous three-year-old graded stakes races, one horse truly stands above the rest.
Eskendereya provided racing fans with another outstanding performance obliterating a solid field of six in the Wood Memorial, winning by an ever- increasing 9 3/4 lengths. That dominating victory came fresh off the heels of an 8 1/2 length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes back in mid-February.
Jockey John Velazquez hand rode the son of Giant's Causeway the entire race, never once asking the colt for anything extra. Eskendereya's effortless burst of speed through the stretch distanced himself not only from the rest of the Wood Memorial field, but also, quite possibly, the other 19 starters in the upcoming Kentucky Derby.
Some might look at the final time, a slow 1:49 4/5, and say he's not as fast as some of the other colts, especially since this was the third slowest running of the Wood since 1990. However, the track wasn't playing very fast for two-turn races last Saturday as older stakes horses needed 1:51 2/5 to complete the Grade 3 Excelsior Stakes one race earlier. In addition, Eskendereya could have run at least a full second faster if forced to, but there was no reason for Velazquez to push him just four weeks prior to the first Saturday in May.
Still, viable questions do remain since the Todd Pletcher-trained star has yet to face any adversity this year, racing outside of horses, free and clear of any possible trouble. What happens if Eskendereya draws an inside post position at Louisville and gets boxed in behind a wall of horses?
Furthermore, the expected 2010 Derby favorite has been able to stalk the early leaders through moderately slow fractions in his prior two victories. Will he be able to rev up the engines if he finds himself five to seven lengths off the lead after the first four furlongs?
Those two key questions are what gamblers will have to think about before placing their bets on a colt that should be the 9-5 favorite.
One potential danger area that Eskendereya will not have to worry about is the ability to handle 10 furlongs. The $250,000 yearling purchase is bred to run all day as his sire, Giant's Causeway, finished second in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Classic, and his damsire is the 1977 Triple Crown winner, Seattle Slew.
In addition, Eskendereya's granddam, Altair, is a daughter of Alydar, who ran second to Affirmed in all three 1978 Triple Crown races. Altair's dam, Stellar Odyssey, is a half-sister to the 1974 Kentucky Derby winner Cannonade, as well as Kennelot, who produced Stephen's Odyssey, the runner-up in the 1985 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
Furthermore, Stellar Odyssey's dam, Queen Sucree, is a half-sister to Halo, the sire of two Kentucky Derby winners - Sunday Silence and Sunny's Halo, and Queen Sucree's mom Cosmah is a half to Natalma, who produced the 1964 Derby winner Northern Dancer.
If Eskendereya proves victorious in the Kentucky Derby, he'll be well on his way to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed.
A SWEET SANTA ANITA DERBY
Sidney's Candy and jockey Joe Talamo got away with highway robbery for the second straight time en route to a 4 1/2 length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby.
After loping along unchallenged through slow early fractions in the San Felipe Stakes three weeks ago, the pair lulled the field to sleep again with 24 and 48 2/5 splits. After the three-quarter time was posted in 1:12 1/5, Sidney's Candy picked up the pace running his final three furlongs in 35 4/5 while stretching the lead from one length to 4 1/2.
The 7-2 second choice benefited from not only another pedestrian pace but also with the unfortunate trip that beset Lookin At Lucky. The 4-5 favorite was moving up on the rail around the far turn when jockey Garrett Gomez had to steady and pull back on the reins forcing the two-year-old champ to drop from fourth-place to eighth in a matter of seconds. It was a remarkable feat that the horse was able to regain composure and re-rally to finish third, beaten six lengths.
Those folks planning to wager on Lookin At Lucky in the Kentucky Derby got exactly what they wanted. The Bob Baffert-trained colt could very well be closer to 6-1 on the first Saturday in May instead of the expected 3-1 if he had won the Santa Anita Derby.
However, don't run to the windows just yet. This is a horse that has had just one trouble-free race since last October and in a race loaded with 19 other horses, his chances for another bad trip are extremely high.
Lookin At Lucky wasn't the only horse in the race that ran into problems. The winner, Sidney's Candy, stumbled out of the gate but still won handily. It was the second straight year that Joe Talamo faced adversity in his final Kentucky Derby prep as he directed I Want Revenge to a miraculous victory in last year's Wood Memorial after a treacherous beginning.
Sidney's Candy might now be the second choice in the betting behind Eskendereya. Still, 7-2 or 4-1 might be tough to take since he won't be able to enjoy his usual easy lead in the Kentucky Derby with the likes of Homeboykris, Conveyance, Rule, American Lion, and quite possibly Super Saver and Discreetly Mine on or near the lead.
THE LION ROARS INTO ILLINOIS
In another example of how easily California horses have adapted to conventional dirt, American Lion went gate to wire prevailing over Yawanna Twist by 2 3/4 lengths in the 53rd running of the Illinois Derby.
The son of Tiznow came into the race off a fourth-place finish to Sidney's Candy in the San Felipe but there was no one to challenge him on the lead in this one.
Despite the victory, he still ran his final five furlongs in 1:02 seconds flat needing 1:51 1/5 to complete the 1 1/8-mile race. When War Emblem parlayed his Illinois Derby win with the Kentucky Derby, he ran this event in 1:49 2/5, and Musket Man finished in 1:49 4/5 last year before picking up a third-place check at Louisville. In fact, the 1:51 1/5 is the same time that Cowtown Cat ran in 2007 and that horse wound up last in the Kentucky Derby.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Eskendereya; 2) Lookin At Lucky; 3) Sidney's Candy; 4) Noble's Promise; 5) Endorsement; 6) Dublin; 7) Super Saver; 8) Interactif; 9) Make Music for Me; 10) Ice Box; 11) Odysseus; 12-T) Pleasant Prince and Awesome Act
HORSES TO WATCH
Race seven on last Saturday's Keeneland card was an entry-level allowance race for three-year-old fillies at about seven furlongs.
Much Rejoicing remained undefeated in two starts on Polytrack with an emphatic 3 1/2 length score over Buckleupbuttercup.
The James Toner-trained filly has an outstanding pedigree for both dirt and turf and should be a future stakes winner on any surface she chooses.
Bred in Kentucky, the daughter of Distorted Humor is out of Soaring Softly, who won the first Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare turf race in 1999. Soaring Softly's granddam, Wings of Grace, is a half-sister to Sunyata, who is the second dam of one of this year's top three-year-old colts, Noble's Promise.
In an interesting twist, the other horse to watch comes out of the very same race.
Bringingdown Babel finished sixth at 43-1 but did not disgrace herself moving up from a maiden special weight victory at Turfway Park on March 13. She won by 2 1/2 lengths that day finishing her 5 1/2-furlongs in 1:06 1/5.
The chestnut filly broke slow last Saturday, trailing the field at the start. She then rushed up to sixth, going four-wide into a 23-second first quarter. The longshot then moved into contention on even terms with Much Rejoicing approaching the top of the stretch.
Unfortunately, she faltered through the stretch winding up in the sixth spot, beaten 11 1/4 lengths. However, it's not often a 43-1 can challenge for the lead near the top of the lane after breaking slow from the gate. Sure she failed inside the final furlong but the filly still ran her first three- quarters of a mile in 1:11 flat against quality competition.
If her connections find a six-furlong allowance race for her next start, she's definitely one to watch!
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A collapse by the Sharks last time out cost them a chance
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playoff chances.
San Jose will try to rebound tonight at Pengrowth Saddledome and cli
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Redskin for the first time Tuesday, and the quarterback seemed primed to start
the pro
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Valladolid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Valladolid has fired coach Onesimo
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Bayern's Robben, Van Buyten travel to England >>
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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