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02/22/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the top Kentucky Derby contenders in training will be making their first start of the season this Sunday in the $350,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Court Vision, the Remsen Stakes winner, is coming off three consecutive wins, while Monba had all of Hollywood Park buzzing with his stout finish in the Cash Call Futurity last December.
Anak Nakal, the expected third choice in the field of 12, is another who'll be recording his 2008 debut, and as is the case with Court Vision and Monba, the Nick Zito-trained colt already possesses a victory at Churchill Downs, a key advantage on the Kentucky Derby trail. Most experts have at least two of these three on their top ten Derby lists, making the Fountain of Youth the first key prep race to be run this season. It's also the first one at nine panels.
Court Vision is by far the most accomplished of the troika with a pair of stakes triumphs already under his belt. The Bill Mott-trained colt's three wins in four starts, along with impeccable breeding, has Court Vision as one of the favorites for the "Run for the Roses." His sire, Gulch, won the 1987 Wood Memorial and finished third in that year's Belmont Stakes to Bet Twice and Cryptoclearance. In addition, the "Gulchster" previously sired the 1995 Kentucky Derby winner, Thunder Gulch.
More importantly, Court Vision's dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall, and a half-sister to A.P. Indy, 1992's Horse of the Year. With lineage like this, it's no surprise that Court Vision is the only member of the 23-horse "Pool 1" field to have won a stakes race on the dirt at nine furlongs.
Monba was victorious in his first two starts, but failed at 6-1 in his final two-year-old race: the Cash Call Futurity on December 22. The pace was not too quick that afternoon (46 2/5 for the half) and the Todd Pletcher-trained son of Maria's Mon lagged behind in 10th place after getting bumped at the start. Monba still only had two horses beaten as the field hit the three-quarter mark, but the gray colt began to get into gear at the top of the stretch. Ten lengths was too much to make up, but his fourth-place finish garnered him tons of respect among the throng at Hollywood Park.
He ran his final 2-furlongs in a brisk 28 4/5 and if the race had been another sixteenth-of-a-mile, Monba would have easily gotten up for second and maybe even challenged Into Mischief for the top spot.
Anak Nakal won his last start, the Kentucky Jockey Club over at Churchill Downs last November, but benefited by a perfect trip sitting behind the three front-runners, who incidentally ended up in 5th, 6th and 7th in the seven horse field. In addition, second-place finisher, Blackberry Road, has won only one of his eight lifetime races while consistently failing against the best of his generation.
The "KYJC" winner has two wins in three lifetime starts, but was ripped apart by Etched in the Nashua Stakes last November. Etched, himself, did not fare too well in his three-year-old debut at Dubai, finishing fourth in the UAE 2,000 Guineas on Valentine's Day.
If one wants to duck the favorites and set his sights on a longshot, look no further than Adriano. The Courtlandt Farms homebred has raced primarily on the turf with two victories in four grass appearances, including a win in his three-year-old debut by 6 3/4-lengths.
The son of A.P. Indy has yet to race on dirt as his only non-turf event came on Polytrack at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity. His fourth-place finish in that event was very respectable considering all he had accomplished up until that point was a maiden win on the Saratoga turf.
Even though Court Vision is my personal choice to win the Kentucky Derby, it will be a tough task to win this race off the long layoff of almost three months. In addition, it's likely he will be the favorite this Sunday, and wagering on him in this race is not the easiest way to increase the bankroll.
Monba is the horse to back in the Fountain of Youth, but don't just play him to win. Save some money for a three horse exacta box with Monba, Court Vision and Adriano.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
There were a couple of preps run over the holiday weekend, namely the Sam F. Davis down at Tampa Bay Downs and the Southwest over at Oaklawn. The former was led by Z Humor, who had previously won the Delta Downs Jackpot in a dead heat with Turf War. (In a surprising move, Bill Mott has wheeled Z Humor right back in the Fountain of Youth, maybe to be used as a rabbit for Court Vision.)
However, at 6-5 in the Sam F. Davis, against the likes of Fierce Wind and Smooth Air, it was advisable to look past the favorite.
One other horse that deserved consideration was Big Truck. The New York-bred fought off a brutal trip in the Remsen to lose by just five lengths to Court Vision. He then threw in a clunker in the slop vs. Smooth Air, running a well- beaten fifth in the Hutcheson, but was primed for a huge effort.
The race ran almost exactly as planned as Fierce Wind, who had won his last two starts by over 15 lengths, rated for the first time in his short career. The son of Dixie Union toyed with the field around the turn, moving from fourth to first in a powerful burst. His jockey, Cornelio Velasquez, gave him a very confident ride, as if no other horse had a chance to win. Fierce Wind, who led by more than a length for most of the stretch run, eventually held off the late charging combo of Big Truck and Smooth Air (who finished second and third, respectively) to gain the half-length victory.
Those that backed the Nick Zito charge were welcomed to a very generous $8.80 win price and the exacta with Big Truck came back a shade under $75. Both extreme overlays.
Fierce Wind still has some work to do if he is to be considered a major Kentucky Derby contender. The April foal hung through the stretch and finished the 1 1/16 in a pedestrian 1:44, earning a low Beyer number of 85. Still, both he and Big Truck are bred to run all day long, and should improve as winter turns to spring.
The Southwest Stakes featured the undefeated Denis of Cork and the other dead heat winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot, Turf War. In the end, it was Denis of Cork continuing his winning ways with a 2 1/4-length victory, earning a very impressive 96 Beyer figure. The David Carroll-trained colt ran his final quarter in 25 1/5 and finished the flat mile in 1:37 4/5.
The 9-2 third choice, fifth as the field hit the half in a brisk 45 1/5 seconds, rallied from 18 lengths behind to win going away. What made his run most impressive was the fact that only one other horse that was as far back as he was at the half-mile pole was able to finish in the top five.
JEFF FRANK'S TOP 10 KENTUCKY DERBY PROSPECTS WITH POOL 1 ODDS
Not much has changed in this week's rankings, except for the removal of both Etched and Crown of Thorns. The former failed to hit the board in his three- year-old debut, while the latter will miss at least three months after injuring his left front leg earlier in the week. The new top 10 looks like this:
1) Court Vision, 15-1; 2) Monba, 16-1; 3) War Pass, 6-1; 4) Tomcito, 3-1 (field); 5) Pyro, 5-1; 6) Colonel John, 19-1; 7) El Gato Malo, 16-1; 8) Denis of Cork, 46-1; 9) Fierce Wind, 3-1 (field); 10-T) Giant Moon, 51-1, and Big Truck, 3-1 (field).
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on the Patriots'
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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