Hoyas and Bulls collide in Big East Tourney

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big East Tournament continues today, as the ninth-seeded South Florida Bulldogs tussle with the 22nd-ranked and eighth-seeded Georgetown Hoyas in second-round action at Madison Square Garden. The winner of this game will move on to the quarterfinals against top- seeded Syracuse on Thursday.

Winner of its last three games heading into the postseason, USF finished 9-9 within the league, by far its best mark since joining the Big East. The Bulls carried over their success into the league tourney yesterday, notching a 58-49 win over 16th-seeded DePaul. It was the first-ever win in the team's second appearance in this event, as USF also reached the 20-win plateau for just the third time in the 39-year history of the program.

The Hoyas meanwhile, have a storied history, especially in the Big East Tournament, where they have won a record 46 games and seven titles. Georgetown earned a first-round bye with its 10-8 finish in conference play, although the team won just two its final six outings.

Georgetown leads the head-to-head series with USF, 5-3, but the Bulls knocked off the Hoyas, 72-64, in Washington, D.C. on February 3rd.

The Bulls held DePaul to a dismal 29.9 percent shooting performance from the floor, as they came away with a 58-49 victory in first-round play yesterday. USF, which took a 30-15 lead to the intermission, made 43.3 percent of its field goals and scored 50 points in the paint. Dominique Jones led the charge with an all-around effort of 20 points, nine rebounds, four assists and four steals. It was a typical effort from Jones, one of the premier players in the Big East. A first-team all-league choice, Jones averaged a league-best 23.2 ppg in Big East play during the regular season and he also posted 6.1 rpg and 3.7 apg. Mike Mercer added 14 points and five boards in yesterday's win, a nice improvement from his regular-season production of 9.5 ppg.

The Hoyas are a good shooting team, as they are hitting on 49.8 percent of their attempts from the floor and 38.8 percent from long range. Austin Freeman, a second-team all-conference pick, leads the team in scoring at 17.3 ppg and he shoots 47.9 percent from beyond the arc. Greg Monroe is another big time talent for this Georgetown club, as the 6-11 center nearly averages a double-double with 16.0 ppg and a team-high 9.6 rpg. A first-team all- conference choice, Monroe is also a terrific passer for a big man, dishing out 3.6 apg. Chris Wright adds 14.2 ppg and a team-high 4.0 apg to the mix for Georgetown, while Jason Clark chips in with 10.3 ppg.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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